Sunday, May 2, 2010

If Howard is worth 25 million then Adam Dunn is worth 22 Million!!!!

What I take from Howard's contract is that Adam Dunn is apparently worth 20-25 million dollars, or the Phillies drastically overpaid. The Nationals are getting Dunn on a two year 20 million deal, and I think they are getting the far better deal. Firstly, to spoil the popular impression of people saying that Howard is worth 25 million because of his age, he is not a young player. For some reason it seems that he is, but he is not. He is 30 years old. Adam Dunn is also 30 years old. It seems like he should be much older, but he is not, he just started young. I keep bringing up Dunn because they are excellent comparisons. Dunn is also a first basemen now, and they are both slow, poor fielding first basemen, who strikeout about 200 times a year. In fact Dunn was the perennial leader until Ryan Howard burst onto the scene and wrestled first place from him with a 199 strikeout performance. No doubt they would be battling out for first every year now, but of course Mark Reynolds is in fact in the league and the reigning strike out king. Alas, but I digress, back to the subject at hand. To take a look over the last three years, Howard and Dunn's offensive numbers are incredibly similar. In 2009 Howard put up percentage numbers of .279 .360 .571 for an OPS of .931. Dunn put up a .267 .398 .529 for a .928 OPS. That’s 3 points different and Dunn played in a park that was much, much less hitter friendly than Howard. To abbreviate a little in 2008 Howard put up an .881 OPS to Dunn's .898. In 2007 Howard had a .976 and Dunn had a .940. Howard's 2006 was much better than Dunn's as that was his MVP year. Howard does have an MVP which I guess is worth something, but Dunn has 5 more years proving that he is good for a .900 OPS pretty much every year. This players are nearly identical with Howard having a slight edge in percentage numbers, and a huge edge in RBI's. But folks, RBI's are a stat dependant on your teams offense, and looked out with little value in today's baseball. And Howard has played in the middle of the lineup for an EXCELLENT offensive team. And I am not advocating that Dunn is a better player than Howard. But it’s a TERRIBLE, TERRIBLE contract by Howard. At best he is a worth 2-4 million more a year than Dunn, and NOBODY in baseball believes Dunn is worth 20 million. Then why in the heck does Philly think that Howard is worth 25 million?

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