The Flu

I know a thing or two about epidemics. I guess one good thing about focusing on medical history in my M.A. is that I have gotten a good working knowledge about how epidemics work particularly those that are reoccurring epidemics such as influenza. People don’t understand a lot about what is going on with H1N1 virus. To understand the issue and why it is so frightening to a lot of people you have to go back to the Spanish Influenza epidemic from the early part of the 20th century. That epidemic was truly frightening. It had a high fatality rate and the most terrifying thing about it is that it was an indiscriminate killer. Most diseases rarely kill people in the prime of life. They focus on the elderly and the young or those that already have compromised immune systems. The Spanish Flu was not one of these. It killed people just as readily that was in perfect condition as those that were not. People could wake up feeling fine and be dead by night fall. It is theorized, though not definitively confirmed, that the Spanish Influenza was a mutated strain of avian flu. That is where the fear of these avian and swine flu’s are derived from. The fear is that eventually an avian flu will mutate to where it can be spread person to person. Then the fear is that after it does that it can mutate into the incredibly virulent and dangerous form that it has taken in the past. People think that the CDC and WHO are over reacting to these flu strains and that they are no big deal. The people who say this are right to some extent. The H1N1 as it is right now is really no big deal. It’s basically a really bad case of the flu, and unless you have a pre-existing condition then all you have to fear is really feeling like crap for a while. However, the Health Organizations are not over reacting. They have to start implementing protocols now. If they wait until the virus mutates then it will be too late and will be in mass pandemic stage before they can begin to do anything. Only by pre-emptively planning can they hope to do anything if it becomes a major worldwide pandemic. The best thing that can be done for such a situation is for them to begin planning for the worst, and to try and increase the herd immunity to the highest level that it possibly can be. If you don’t plan for the worst then if the worst happens you will be unprepared.