Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Batting Average vs. OBP., Where is the Value?

This is an always interesting debate and one that in the last ten or fifteen years has made a tremendious shift.  Of course the discussion goes hand to hand with the one on the value of the RBI and the Run Scores.  For years the stats that were most valued by GM's, Managers, and most everybody in baseball were these three categories.  Within the last few years however, sabermetricians have been preaching loudly that all three of these catergories were being over valued.  Batting average was considered by these people unimportant compared to the more all encompassing On Base Percentage.  RBI's and Run scored were considered poor measures of evaluation because they are so contingent on who is in the lineup around the specific player.  There are, however, some hangers on to the older ways of thinkg.  One of which is Analyst and Hall of Famer Joe Morgan.  He complete disregards stats like OBP, and I find it hilarious.  He may be the single player in history that has benefited the most from sabermetric stats.  

The question in regards to batting average is this.  Based on this lines which player is more valuable.  Player A who hit (keep in mind I am leaving SLG out, and these stats are real lines, not made up speculative stats) .341 with a .375 OBP.  Or Player B who hit .293 with a .411 OBP.  Now there is a lot of things that go into the value of this players, such as slugging, speed, and yes, even runs and RBI's.  But this isn't in itself comparing two complete players, but rather comparing the value of the the statistical catergories  themselves.  The problem with analyzing this players value also has to do with the team they are on.  Sometimes a team doesn't need another OBP guy and they really do need a guy who can drive in the runs, and sometimes what a team truly needs is players that can get on base.  However, its best in the long haul to evaluate a players ability looking purely at the stats as if he was not on a particular team.  Teams are fluid they change over the years, so its hard to compare one players career to another based on team needs.  

With little exception I fall on the side that says the OBP is possibly the one most valuable stat in determining a players worth.  Of course truthfully the holy grail of determination is the OPS.  This is as most of you who read this know, a combination of OBP and SLGing. This is without a doubt the most important measure of a players offensive value.  Far supassing cumulative number counts.  Of course with any statistical measure there are always anomalies (Adam Dunn for one, his OPS is way higher that his actual offensive value in a run producing spot in the order) but this is the best that we have, and is the most efficient way of comparing players quickly and accurately.  

2 comments:

  1. Joe Morgan is an idiot. It is always a smart idea to take the opposite stance than his on any issue! He is the Jow Maddon of baseball, and he thinks Billy Beane wrote Moneyball - a book about Billy Beane. . .

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  2. He takes himself way to seriously and I absolutely cannot stand him. He is articulate enough, and seems intelligent, but then just says stuff that either makes look amazingly arrogant or utterly foolish. Its odd because he was a damn smart ballplayer.

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